History shows that change in economic development always leads to in-depth revolution in the metal consumption pattern. The advancement in production, consumption growth as well as the rise of new economy promoted by China’s 12th Five-year Plan have become the key drivers of the aluminium industry’s structural adjustment . In the next decade, it is estimated that the CAGR of China’s aluminium consumption will be around 10%. The growth of aluminium products for constructional use will slow down while that of aluminium for the transportation, durable consumer products and new economy sectors will grow faster with the percentage to total consumption grows from 40% to over 60%, showing a pattern similar to that of Europe and the United States. High-speed rail, aluminium profiles for automobiles and electronic foils will become the fastest growing sub-sectors with a CAGR of 15% to 20% between 2010 and 2015. Leading enterprises in the industry will enjoy the growth sooner than other peers due to technical and channel barriers.
Energy saving in industrial sectors, consumption growth and new energy development lift the demand for aluminium foils in China with exceptional growth in alloy foils for automobiles, soft packaging foils, pharmaceutical foils and electrode foils. Energy saving and consumption management in industrial sectors (transformers, power supplies etc.), electric vehicles, consumption growth of electronic products and the development of the new energy sector will continue to broaden the applications of medium-to-high voltage aluminium electrolytic capacitors, and its key raw material mid-to-high-voltage electrode foils will be sought-after with estimated growth rate of around 20% in the next three to five years.
In addition, production advancement leads to exceptional growth in aluminium profiles for railway transportation, and the increasing railway speed has set a trend for the use of new alloy materials. Operating frequency of inter-province rail in China is expected to reach 0.7 to 1.0 unit per kilometer between 2010 and 2020, while operating frequency of inter-city rail will likely reach 1.2 to 1.4 units per kilometer. Assuming the high-speed rail mileage will reach 20,000 kilometers and the inter-city rail mileage will reach 24,000 kilometers in 2020, China’s annual demand for multiple units will surpass 1,100 units in 2017 with annual consumption of aluminium extrusion profiles over 100 kilotons.
The light-weight development of automobiles in China stimulates the demand for aluminium extrusion profiles. Aluminium consumption for automobiles in China is expected to increase from 110 kilograms per unit in 2010 to 150 kilograms per unit in 2015. It is estimated that consumption of aluminium extrusion profiles for automobiles in China will reach 500,000 tons in 2015, and the average growth rate between 2010 and 2015 will reach 20%.
Editor’s Note: The rapid development of the country’s high-speed rail and urban rail transportation system stimulates the applications of industrial aluminium extrusion profiles and creates a new market for aluminium enterprises. China Zhongwang had mainly been engaged in the production of aluminium alloy window frames and doors for years before 2003. Leveraging on its vision in the aluminium extrusion profile industry, China Zhongwang expanded beyond the construction aluminium extrusion profile sector and transited into the industrial aluminium extrusion profile sector in 2003. The company is now the world’s second largest industrial aluminium extrusion product manufacturer and is able to produce high-precision and large cross-section industrial aluminium extrusion profiles for transportation vehicles including railway’s multiple units, underground and airplanes. Those related products have already received European Union’s EN 15085-2 CL1 certificate (welding of railway vehicles and component). It is said that China Zhongwang plans to make substantial investment to develop high value-added aluminium flat rolled products.
